Comparing previous five seasons, attacking returns from defenders have gone down significantly which points out the dilemma that how much budget should be put in defenders, should we go big or should we look for defenders who boast better per million points.

Another interesting comparison magnifies the fact that over last few season, number of high scoring defenders with threshold of 100 & 150 points lowered by a noticeable margin. Hence, it can be crucial going forward to have backups of playing defenders who has acceptable chance of clean sheets incase of injury and other variables.

Going further, here are some team based key points:

Manchester City

None of the Man city defenders were able to get past 100 points mark. The data is extremely surprising considering that the premier league champions were the best team defensively alongside Newcastle United and Arsenal. The simple interpretations are:

** Expected minutes are low
** Expected non cs returns are low
** Expected bonus points are low

Also, Man City has some ridiculously low priced attackers in the form of Foden, Grealish, Silva (If he stays) and Alvarez. The upsides of all of them are much higher compared to defenders. It could be useful if we keep 1or 2 Man City spots open to cash on later after having a better idea of expected minutes and positioning of players.

Still, if I were to pick one, Stone seems the best option at 5.5m

Arsenal

From GW 4-9, Arsenal has Man Utd (H), TOT (H), MCI (A), Chelsea (A). While there is tremendous value in their attacking options, expectations should be managed for their defenders beyond GW 3.

Newcastle

Their fixture takes contrasting turn compared to Arsenal. From GW 5-10, they have BRE (H), SHU (H), BUR (H), WHU (A), CRY (H), WOL (A). Considering 35% plus ownership for Trippier, most of us will want to have a piece of Newcastle defence. Botman is an excellent choice if you are considering a 4.5m def for your fourth defender and possibly first or second bencher. It might save you a transfer you need to make post GW 4.

Brighton

Brighton has only one fixture with FDR 2 from GW 4-9 and will face NEW (H), Man UTD (A), LIV (H) & Man City (A). Though the fixtures might still be good for attacking returns, it might not be good from defender’s point of view. You might need to pull a defender from your bench in place of Brighton defender post GW 3.

Aston Villa

Villa has excellent run over the first 14 GW consisting of 9 fixtures with FDR 2. They also have some of the best 4.5m defenders in the game. There are concerns over their composition at the back though.

Unai Emery has discussed about a flexible backline with 4-4-2 or 3-5-2 based on opposition and match scenario. However, it is yet to be seen who are his top 2 choice of defenders between Mings, Konsa and Torres incase of 4-4-2. Also, Cash could be an excellent choice but there are some doubts over expected minutes.

Chelsea

Similar to Aston Villa, Chelsea also has a very good run of fixtures in terms of defenders up until GW 8. They face none of the top 6 sides of last year from GW 2-8. Both Chilwell and James are great option at 5.5m and could match Trent in terms of the points, even though, they are priced at 2.5m lower. But, their fitness remains a topic of debate.

Liverpool

Trent, Robertson, Van Dijk all are good options and all of them will probably have a decent outing over the season. However, if you are at all interested to look at pre-season performances, you would see a leaky Liverpool defense, still trying to figure out ways to play without proper defensive midfielder. At the given price range, it genuinely seems that there are other ways to effective use the cash rather than in Liverpool defense. Che (A), New (A), TOT (A), BHA (A) does not seem like good fixtures for defensive returns.

Brentford 

Over the last couple of years, Brentford has established themselves as a good defensive team specially at home. Their fixture rating seems good as well with only 3 fixtures above FDR 2 in first 9 GW. They have excellent 4.5m defender and goal keeper option who are popular in terms of ownership as well. However, the impact of not having Raya at their defense will be huge. Raya has made 4.05 saves per 90mins last week and Flekken’s ability against premier league elites are yet to be tested.

Everton

In the first game for Sean Dyche at Everton, Everton managed a 1-0 win over Arsenal at home. 5 clean sheets in last 18 GW for a relegation battling team seems like an achievement. With good amount of time with the team, Everton might start reflecting Dysche style of play which produced 11.2 clean sheet on average from 2016-17 to 2020-21 with Burnley. Of the 5 clean sheet gained in Dysche era, 4 came at home. Interestingly, in the first 8 GW, Everton play FUL, WOL, LUT & BOU at home.

Disclaimer: There are other notable options from remaining teams as well. The article is based on author’s opinion only.

Note: Data taken from secondary sources.

By Shihab

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